More Lambs. But More Competition Too
As we move towards the traditional spring lamb flush, processors are progressively adjusting prices in anticipation of increased supply.
But perhaps we shouldn’t automatically assume more lambs means processors will have the market entirely their own way.
National lamb processing during 2025–26 was around 15% below the previous year and almost 20% below the record levels of two years earlier. That tight supply helped drive lamb indicators to record levels through winter. Prices have since eased, while processing numbers are only now beginning to increase as new-season lambs emerge.
There is also another buyer in the equation , the feeder.
Particularly in WA, local and interstate feeder demand is becoming increasingly relevant. Some feeder specifications now cover quite wide weight ranges, meaning the distinction between a feeder lamb and a potential processor lamb is becoming increasingly blurred.
Importantly, this isn’t something that may happen later in the spring — it is happening now. Current feeder offers are approaching the liveweight equivalent of processor returns, meaning producers with suitable lambs are increasingly faced with a genuine decision: feeder or processor?
And that decision isn’t necessarily based on price alone. Feeders can potentially take significant numbers when producers choose to sell, without requiring lambs to be finished to a particular processor specification or waiting for processing space.
Seasonal conditions add another dimension. They remain mixed, particularly in WA where some areas continue to lean towards the dry side, while conditions across important sheep-producing areas of South Australia and parts of Victoria have improved considerably from last year.
Nationally, however, the seasonal picture should give more producers greater choice over when they market lambs. That matters. Where feed allows, producers aren’t necessarily forced to sell into the traditional spring flush. They may choose to add weight, delay marketing, target a processor later or take advantage of increasingly competitive feeder opportunities.
That ability to choose could be one of the most important influences on how this year’s spring supply actually comes forward.
There is potentially another market channel developing as well. As mentioned last week, anecdotal feedback suggests growing interest in the ewe lamb portion of this year’s drop.
If that develops into genuine restocker demand, some ewe lambs that may otherwise have entered the processing or feeder supply chain could instead be retained or purchased for breeding.
Beef provides an interesting comparison. While lamb production has contracted considerably over the past two years, beef production, processing and exports have moved strongly in the opposite direction.
Perhaps there’s a lesson there.
More livestock doesn’t necessarily mean lower producer returns if increased supply also creates processing efficiencies, export opportunities and competition.
So yes, expect more lambs this spring, and processors may continue testing prices.
But don’t underestimate producer choice , or the number of markets potentially competing for those lambs.
More lambs with more buyers competing for them might be exactly what the sheep industry needs.