After a couple of weeks away, it’s been interesting getting back into the market and doing my usual ring-around to get a feel for where things are sitting.
There are certainly some early signs that the very strong lamb prices we’ve been seeing are starting to ease.
From the conversations I’ve had this week, there looks to be some downward movement in lamb pricing coming over the next week or so. At this stage, the reductions appear fairly marginal, but the direction is worth noting.
That’s probably not unusual as we move further into spring and start to see more new-season lambs coming forward.
The big question, though, is still supply.
Talking to breeders both here in WA and through the eastern states, there seems to be fairly widespread acknowledgement that lambing and marking percentages have improved this year.
But what we still don’t really know is how many ewes were actually mated. Better marking percentages don’t necessarily mean more lambs overall if they’re coming from a smaller breeding ewe base.
One area I think is particularly interesting this year is the renewed interest in ewe lambs.
For the past couple of years, large parts of the sheep industry nationally have been going through a period of flock reduction. Producer confidence has been tested, some growers have exited the industry altogether, and in that environment there simply hasn’t been the same incentive to retain or go looking for additional breeding females.
Hopefully, we’re now getting towards the end of that reduction phase.
What I’m hearing this year is some genuine interest in securing suitable ewe lambs, both here in WA and from buyers in the eastern states. If that continues, it could become an important additional market for a proportion of this year’s lamb drop.
And I think that has implications for the feeder lamb market as well.
If more ewe lambs are being retained or purchased for future breeding, rather than flowing into the normal feeder supply, that creates another level of competition for available lambs. In turn, that could provide some additional price support to feeder lamb values as we move further into the season.
Finally, with some early signs of finished lamb prices easing, it’s probably also a good time to take a breath and have another look at some of the forward and minimum-price opportunities that are available.
Nobody knows exactly where the market will be in two or three months. But with prices still historically strong, having some price certainty over a portion of your lambs is certainly worth considering.
That’s my market update for this week.