Seasonal Trends Point to Reduced WA Sheep & Lamb Supply This Autumn

 An analysis of Western Australia’s lamb and mutton processing over the past five years reveals important signals for producers heading into the February- April period. Rather than focusing on raw kill volumes – which shift with flock size – this assessment looks at each period as a percentage of the total annual kill, providing a far clearer picture of how supply is trending.

For lambs, the long-term pattern shows around 25% of the annual kill normally occurs between February and April. In recent seasons, that proportion has fallen into the 22–24% range, reflecting both a smaller breeding base and the tendency for more lambs to be processed earlier in the season. The July–November period – traditionally accounting for around 34.8% of annual lamb slaughter – has lifted to nearly 40% in both 2024 and 2025. This confirms that stronger pricing and seasonal conditions encouraged earlier turnoff, reducing the pool of lambs available heading into autumn.

As a result, lamb availability for February to April is expected to sit below long-term averages, with current forecasts indicating a likely throughput of around 600,000 head statewide. While not dramatically tight, this represents a leaner supply environment than producers and processors would typically expect for early autumn.

The mutton picture is more pronounced. The July–December share of annual mutton kill has fallen sharply to 40.6%, the lowest level in five years and well below the historical norm of around 50%. This is a clear indicator that WA is now working with a significantly reduced adult sheep population following the heavy liquidation of recent years. Forward mutton supply is expected to remain materially constrained, underpinning price strength across the state.

Overall, these seasonal percentages point to a tighter supply environment for both lamb and mutton as we head through late summer and early autumn, with market competition likely to remain firm as processors secure limited available stock.